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Model Predictions
The modeling segment of the project will be done by the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Syracuse University with the PnET-BGC (Gbondo-Tugbawa et al. 2001) integrated biogeochemical model; PnET-BGC simulates major abiotic processes and biotic processes in forest ecosystems. PnET-BGC is currently being applied to forest ecosystems in the Adirondack region, including Huntington Forest (a second-growth watershed with intermediate ANC), Willys Pond watershed (a mature-growth watershed), Constable Pond watershed (a second-growth watershed with negative ANC), and West Pond watershed (a second-growth watershed with high DOC drainage waters). Following validation of the model, a scenario analysis will be conducted to evaluate the response of these watersheds to potential changes in atmospheric deposition. These deposition scenarios will include: (1) anticipated changes in atmospheric deposition from Title IV of the 1990 Amendments of the Clean Air Act, (2) potential reductions in utility emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides as defined in legislation proposed for reauthorization of the Clean Air Act, and (3) proposals to decrease emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides from utilities in New York State.
PnET-BGC will also be applied to four Catskill watersheds; the model will be validated with long-term stream chemistry and flow data from the watersheds and vegetation and soil chemistry data from the Dry Creek and Winnisook watersheds. Precipitation data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program site at Biscuit Brook will be used as the input to the watersheds. As in the Adirondack watershed analysis, scenario analyses will be conducted to predict the response of Catskill watersheds to anticipated changes in atmospheric deposition after expected decreases in sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions. PnET-BGC predicitons of the response of catskill watersheds to changes in atmospheric deposition will be compared to those for the Adirondack watersheds.
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